Iran's attack against Israel with over 300 UAVs, cruise and ballistic missiles was a formal declaration of a multi-front war against Israel that previously was fought hiding behind its proxies of terror in Gaza, the West Bank, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Damascus, Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen.
Iran has been orchestrating these proxies for years and continued in parallel its nuclear enrichment program to its most advanced level. While an Iranian reprisal was expected in recent days and even openly touted by Teheran, the regime may have allowed its hubris to severely overplay its hand and confirm overnight several regional truths.
The Iranian threat of terror and subversion is not merely an Israeli problem. Iran's threat against Israel from its axis of terror undermines regional security and cannot be pursued without threatening neighboring Arab states as was demonstrated by the resolute and effective Jordanian response.
A woman walks past a mural depicting U.S. President Joe Biden as a superhero defending Israel on a street in Tel Aviv, Israel, Sunday, a few hours after an Iranian attack on Israel was largely rebuffed, aided by the United States, Jordan, and other countries.Credit: Leo Correa,AP
What threatens Israel and its Arab neighbors is also a clear and present danger to America and our European allies and the responsibility for dealing with this threat is a joint challenge that does not rest solely on Israeli shoulders.
Even before October 7, the advancing Iranian nuclear program had almost been ignored and evoked little international concern particularly as the events in Gaza became center stage. During this time Iran dramatically shortened the timelines to acquiring weapons grade uranium unrestrained by the 2015 nuclear agreement, and consolidated its status as a nuclear threshold state.
The brazen attack against Israel has now reconfirmed its extreme hostile intent and that its level of aggression cannot be underestimated. Iran has forced the international spotlight to refocus back on the profound threat it constitutes in conventional and nuclear terms.
This threat must be fought not only through military means, but also in parallel in the diplomatic arena.
Iran may have inadvertently reinvigorated discussion over the critical need for a more strident and forceful diplomacy against its aggressive intent including strident and comprehensive sanctions against the regime that should be reinstated by the UN Security Council.
Another observation regarding Iran's massive attack was how the combined assault of several hundred UAV's, cruise and ballistic missiles was relatively ineffective in military terms. In many ways this was not a demonstration of Iranian strength, but rather one of strategic weakness vis a vis Israel. This was not only the first direct Iranian attack on Israel but also a decisive demonstration of Israel's multi-layered missile defense including for the first time a broader operational regional defense mechanism.
All of these factors may have presented Israel with a strategic opportunity to dramatically reverse the traumatic events that ensued after the disastrous Hamas attack on October 7.
People holding an Israeli flag and a placard calling for bringing October 7 attack hostages home, gather for a rally in solidarity with Israel, after Iran launched drones and missiles towards Israel, in Berlin, Germany on Sunday.Credit: Annegret Hilse/ REUTERS
We have a rich history of military victories that do not produce diplomatic accomplishments. We are now facing a situation that this war in Gaza is not only failing to achieve its principle goals of returning all the hostages or eliminating Hamas, but also creating tense relations with our most important strategic partner America. Our enemies are close and the last few hours show that we need to keep America closer particularly after the Biden Administration once again demonstratedits ironclad American commitment to Israel's security.
If in previous years Israel was able to pursue a regional diplomatic and security policy with its Arab neighbors in relative isolation from the Palestinian problem, the Gaza war and the Iranian attack has changed this. If the Iranian threat has created the basis to merge and extend mutual security interests of the parties to the Abraham Accords particularly with Saudi Arabia, as well as the preservation of the peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan, Israel must now formulate its vision of a renewed political horizon with the Palestinians.
We cannot manage the Palestinian conflict anymore in the vain hope that time is on our side and that appeasing Hamas with money at the expense of the Palestinian Authority, would buy us the illusion of security. The need for Israel to choose a pathway to a two-state solution for the Palestinian question can no longer be postponed. It will be a vital factor in enabling a broader partnership with our Arab partners to peace and also open the door to normalization with Saudi Arabia. The implementation of the two-state solution will take several years and will be a gradual process that would give the moderates on both sides the critical incentives to invest in a future without bloodshed and further suffering.
By seeking the removal of Hamas from Gaza, an alternative Palestinian administration is crucial given that the re-establishment of Israeli military rule responsible for the reconstruction of Gaza, is not a realistic or politically viable goal.
The present Israeli government should be eager to seize this opportunity and if not, should put the vote to the Israeli electorate to decide this profound question regarding Israel's strategic direction. Israel must provide a coherent policy or vision as to how we end this war and avoid returning to the status quo prior to October 7.
In conclusion, this evolving American-led regional dynamic to counter the Iranian threat in its different aspects, should also focus all of our collective determination and leverage to secure the immediate release of all the Israeli hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. Without their release the opportunity described above that now presents itself, may not be realized. That will only be a victory for Hamas, Iran and all those who continue to undermine regional security.
Jeremy Issacharoff is former Vice Director General of Israel's Foreign Ministry where he coordinated diplomat efforts on regional security and the Iranian threat. He's also the former Ambassador to Germany. On Twitter: @JIssacharoff